Preparing for Uncertain Futures: Co-created scenarios for the Russian Arctic

Valeeva, Vilena; Gabriel, Johannes; Stephen, Kathrin; Nikitina, Elena; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Baronina, Yulia; Bartels, Marianne P.; Berchelmann, Hans Helmut; Davydova, Angelina; Dethloff, Klaus; Grigoriev, Mikhail; Handorf, Dörthe; Knizhnikov, Alexey; Kotova, Lola; Kuznetsov, Alexey; Kulikova, Olga; Semenov, Vladimir; Sulyandziga, Rodion; Weger, Lindsey

doi:10.48481/iass.2021.023

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Preparing for Uncertain Futures: Co-created scenarios for the Russian Arctic

Authors

/persons/resource/266

Valeeva, Vilena
IASS Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam;

Gabriel, Johannes
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/56

Stephen, Kathrin
IASS Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam;

Nikitina, Elena
External Organizations;

Aksenov, Yevgeny
External Organizations;

Baronina, Yulia
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/35

Bartels, Marianne P.
IASS Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam;

Berchelmann, Hans Helmut
External Organizations;

Davydova, Angelina
External Organizations;

Dethloff, Klaus
External Organizations;

Grigoriev, Mikhail
External Organizations;

Handorf, Dörthe
External Organizations;

Knizhnikov, Alexey
External Organizations;

Kotova, Lola
External Organizations;

Kuznetsov, Alexey
External Organizations;

Kulikova, Olga
External Organizations;

Semenov, Vladimir
External Organizations;

Sulyandziga, Rodion
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/141

Weger, Lindsey
IASS Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam;

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IASS_Discussion_Paper_6001145.pdf
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引用

Valeeva, V., Gabriel, J., Stephen, K., Nikitina, E., Aksenov, Y., Baronina, Y., Bartels, M. P., Berchelmann, H. H., Davydova, A., Dethloff, K., Grigoriev, M., Handorf, D., Knizhnikov, A., Kotova, L., Kuznetsov, A., Kulikova, O., Semenov, V., Sulyandziga, R., & Weger, L. (2021). Preparing for Uncertain Futures: Co-created scenarios for the Russian Arctic. IASS Discussion Paper, August 2021.

引用: https://publications.rifs-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_6001145

要旨

People living or working in the Arctic are faced with uncertainty regarding future social, political, economic, and environmental change. This uncertainty is due not least to the ongoing transformations caused by climate change. This paper presents results from a project entitled “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic”, which employed ‘Strategic Foresight’, a specific co-design and engagement methodology, to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamal region) in Western Siberia, Russia. It was the project’s objective to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. The findings presented here may be of interest for stakeholders in other parts of the Arctic and Russia that depend on the exploitation of fossil fuels and/or are facing complex and uncertain situations.